This seems like it would be taking the easy way out, but I can't really see it any other way. My pick for NL MVP has to be Albert Pujols. My main reason is very simple. So simple it only needs two words to describe: Contract Year.
I'm a huge fan of statistics, too, which provide even more evidence. First and foremost, the guy is averaging 40.8 home runs a year for his career. The past five NL MVPs are averaging 41.8 homers a year. No matter what, the old adage still applies - chicks dig the long ball.
I think my new favorite stat is FanGraphs' WAR. While it's impossible to compare players across generations due to updates in technology, expansion, *cough* PED's *cough*, etc., I think WAR allows for the most even playing field when it comes to this. In a comparison of Pujols with the past three NL MVPs not named Pujols, the numbers are pretty incredible. All 10 of Albert's seasons in the majors except for one (his 2nd year in the league) were better than each of Votto, Rollins, and Howard's MVP seasons. Again, barring injury, this is pretty much a lock.
Also let's not forget those two magical words which go without explaining: Contract Year.
The AL MVP race is much less clear in my eyes. For this award I'll be calling upon my expertise, The Yankees, and will say that the 2011 AL MVP will be none other than Alex Rodriguez. The case for A-Rod is much less about statistics and performance, as it was with Pujols, but more about mental strength and health. Everyone knows what Rodriguez can do when he is healthy - he is purely a monster. Being the fastest to get to 600 home runs, he has proven he can hit the long ball. He is the active leader and 17th all time in RBIs, showing he can drive in runs. He also has the ability to get hotter than any player I have witnessed in my lifetime and carry a team on his back with a 14 home run month. There is no doubt A-Rod has the baseball ability to win AL MVP. Let's take a look at what has held him back though - his health and his head. For the first time since his MVP year in 2007, Alex is healthy. He has shed about 10 lbs. coming into camp and I can tell you from seeing him in person last week, the dude is ripped. On the mental side, Alex was winning MVPs in 2005 and 2007 when New York hate him for not being Derek Jeter. Since then he's been a clutch performer in crunch time, gotten his personal life in order, and won a World Series. The pressure is off and now it's just time for him to play....which he is damn good at. Alex Rodriguez, your 2011 AL MVP. Getcha popcorn ready, Cameron.
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